Trump Holds Narrow Edge Over Harris In Key Swing States

By Fnf correspondent | PUBLISHED: 04, Nov 2024, 16:02 pm IST | UPDATED: 04, Nov 2024, 16:02 pm IST

New Delhi: Recent polls heading into November 5, voting day, suggest that seven key swing states, which will determine the future of the 2024 presidential election, will likely go into a fierce and neck-and-neck contest between former President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. A recent AtlasIntel poll showed former President Donald Trump is currently leading his opponent by a thin margin of 1.8%, getting 49% of support in contrast to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris's 47.2%. The poll places Trump ahead in all swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The survey conducted by AtlasIntel from November 1 to 2 polled nearly 2,500 likely voters who were mostly female. Trump maintains a wide lead in Arizona, with 51.9% of the vote against Harris's 45.1%. Nevada stands to his credit with 51.4% as opposed to Harris's 45.9%, and the same is the case for North Carolina, which comes under his lead at 50.4% in contrast to 46.8%.

Of course, it again seems that swing states will turn out to be crucial determinants. In 2020, for example, Joe Biden won Arizona with an incredibly narrow margin of 10,000 votes to remind everyone that every single ballot really counts. In contrast, a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on October 29 shows Harris was narrowly ahead with 44% to Trump's 43%. The slight lead that Harris has enjoyed in previous polls is gradually narrowing as Election Day draws near and concerns her supporters.

Both the candidates have stepped up their campaigns in these battleground states and competition remains very tight and unpredictable. According to The New York Times and Siena College, Harris leads in the three swing states of Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, while Trump is ahead in the other, Arizona. The study among 7,879 likely voters from October 24 to November 2 clearly shows a tight race across the seven swing states, with support margins of candidates falling under a 3.5% error range, so the outcome is uncertain.

This reflects the poll's differing voter patterns, with about 40% of respondents in these swing states having voted already. Harris leads among the early voters by an 8-point margin, while Trump is ahead among the likely Election Day voters yet to cast their ballots—an arguably crucial edge in these close races.

Pennsylvania, which Harris formerly led, is now a toss-up since Trump had made some good progress. The loss in Pennsylvania could prove to be critical to Harris's election result.

With such a close fight, the last few days before November 5 would see Donald Trump campaign in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia because Harris is going to stay in Michigan. This closely contested race is setting a very close and unlikable end to it as the people of America watch out for their election's ending.